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In situ observed data are commonly used as species occurrence response variables in species distribution models. However, the use of remotely observed data from high‐resolution multispectral remote‐sensing images as a source of presence/absence data for species distribution models remains under‐developed. Here, we describe an ensemble species distribution model of black microbial mats "Nostoc" using presence/absence points derived from the unmixing of 4‐m resolution WorldView‐2 and WorldView‐3 images in the Lake Fryxell basin region of Taylor Valley, Antarctica. Environmental and topographical characteristics such as soil moisture, snow, elevation, slope, and aspect were used as predictor variables in our models. We demonstrate that we can build and run ensemble species distribution models using both dependent and independent variables derived from remote‐sensing data to generate spatially explicit habitat suitability maps. Snow and soil moisture were found to be the most important variables accounting for about 80% of the variation in the distribution of black mats throughout the Fryxell basin. This study highlights the potential contribution of high‐resolution remote‐sensing to species distribution modeling and informs new studies incorporating remotely derived species occurrences in species distribution models, especially in remote areas where access to in situ data is often limited. 

Land cover changes alter hydrologic (e.g., infiltration-runoff), biochemical (e.g., nutrient loads), and ecological processes (e.g., stream metabolism). We quantified differences in aquatic ecosystem respiration in two contrasting stream reaches from a forested watershed in Colorado (1st-order reach) and an agricultural watershed in Iowa (3rd-order reach). We conducted two rounds of experiments in each of these reaches, featuring four sets of continuous injections of Cl as a conservative tracer, resazurin as a proxy for aerobic respiration, and one of the following nutrient treatments: (a) N, (b) N + C, (c) N + P, and (d) C + N + P. With those methods providing consistent information about solute transport, stream respiration, and nutrient processing at the same spatiotemporal scales, we sought to address: (1) Are respiration rates correlated with conservative transport metrics in forested or agricultural streams? and (2) Can short-term modifications of stoichiometric conditions (C:N:P ratios) override respiration patterns, or do long-term physicochemical conditions control those patterns? We found greater respiration in the reach located in the forested watershed but no correlations between respiration, discharge, and advective or transient storage timescales. All the experiments conducted in the agricultural stream featured a reaction-limited transformation of resazurin, suggesting the existence of nutrient or carbon limitations on respiration that our short-term nutrient treatments did not remove. In contrast, the forested stream was characterized by nearly balanced transformation and transient storage timescales. We also found that our short-lived nutrient treatments had minimal influence on the significantly different respiration patterns observed between reaches, which are most likely driven by the longer-term and highly contrasting ambient nutrient concentrations at each site. Our experimental results agree with large-scale analyses suggesting greater microbial respiration in headwater streams in the U.S. Western Mountains region than in second-to-third-order streams in the U.S. Temperate Plains region. 

High spatial and temporal resolution models are essential for understanding future climate impacts and developing effective climate resilience plans. However, existing regional and global river models often lack the resolution needed to accurately capture local conditions. This study uses a series of high-resolution models, including the Regional Arctic System Model, mizuRoute, and the river basin model, to analyze Arctic and sub-Arctic Alaskan hydrology. We compare a historical baseline (1991–2020) with six midcentury (2035–64) futures: two pseudo–global warming scenarios based on historical meteorology and four direct dynamically downscaled global climate models. The six futures reveal significant uncertainty in future annual discharge and peak flows, although a widespread increase in discharge during April (+63%) and October (+31%) is consistently shown across models. Projected increases in rain and shifting weather patterns lead to a transition from snow to rain in spring and autumn, reducing the fraction of snowmelt contributing to river discharge. Rising evapotranspiration moderates discharge changes, particularly in autumn, by offsetting precipitation increases. Average summer river temperatures are projected to increase by approximately 1.5°C, doubling the number of river segments that experience 18°C days, a critical threshold for salmon survival, and intensifying the heat flux to the ocean adding an average of 3.3 × 10¹²MJ yr⁻¹. These changes in the hydrologic cycle could profoundly impact riverine and oceanic ecosystems, posing substantial challenges to communities reliant on these environments. Significance StatementThe purpose of this study is to enhance our understanding of the midcentury climate change impacts on the Alaskan hydrologic cycle. In all six of the potential future scenarios, river flows in spring and autumn are predicted to increase and river temperatures are projected to be warmer throughout the year. These changes are significant as higher river temperatures could jeopardize fish survival. Additionally, the combined effect of increased river water and higher temperatures during spring and autumn will contribute more heat to the ocean, possibly reducing nearshore sea ice. This is crucial because many communities depend on rivers and sea ice for transportation and subsistence activities. 

Abstract Aquatic ecosystems - lakes, ponds and streams - are hotspots of biodiversity in the cold and arid environment of Continental Antarctica. Environmental change is expected to increasingly alter Antarctic aquatic ecosystems and modify the physical characteristics and interactions within the habitats that they support. Here, we describe physical and biological features of the peripheral ‘moat’ of a closed-basin Antarctic lake. These moats mediate connectivity amongst streams, lake and soils. We highlight the cyclical moat transition from a frozen winter state to an active open-water summer system, through refreeze as winter returns. Summer melting begins at the lakebed, initially creating an ice-constrained lens of liquid water in November, which swiftly progresses upwards, creating open water in December. Conversely, freezing progresses slowly from the water surface downwards, with water at 1 m bottom depth remaining liquid until May. Moats support productive, diverse benthic communities that are taxonomically distinct from those under the adjacent permanent lake ice. We show how ion ratios suggest that summer exchange occurs amongst moats, streams, soils and sub-ice lake water, perhaps facilitated by within-moat density-driven convection. Moats occupy a small but dynamic area of lake habitat, are disproportionately affected by recent lake-level rises and may thus be particularly vulnerable to hydrological change. 

Available soil moisture is thought to be the limiting factor for most ecosystem processes in the cold polar desert of the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDVs) of Antarctica. Previous studies have shown that microfauna throughout the MDVs are capable of biological activity when sufficient soil moisture is available (~2–10% gravimetric water content), but few studies have attempted to quantify the distribution, abundance, and frequency of soil moisture on scales beyond that of traditional field work or local field investigations. In this study, we present our work to quantify the soil moisture content of soils throughout the Fryxell basin using multispectral satellite remote sensing techniques. Our efforts demonstrate that ecologically relevant abundances of liquid water are common across the landscape throughout the austral summer. On average, the Fryxell basin of Taylor Valley is modeled as containing 1.5 ± 0.5% gravimetric water content (GWC) across its non-fluvial landscape with ~23% of the landscape experiencing an average GWC > 2% throughout the study period, which is the observed limit of soil nematode activity. These results indicate that liquid water in the soils of the MDVs may be more abundant than previously thought, and that the distribution and availability of liquid water is dependent on both soil properties and the distribution of water sources. These results can also help to identify ecological hotspots in the harsh polar Antarctic environment and serve as a baseline for detecting future changes in the soil hydrological regime. 

Abstract Arctic hydrology is experiencing rapid changes including earlier snow melt, permafrost degradation, increasing active layer depth, and reduced river ice, all of which are expected to lead to changes in stream flow regimes. Recently, long-term (>60 years) climate reanalysis and river discharge observation data have become available. We utilized these data to assess long-term changes in discharge and their hydroclimatic drivers. River discharge during the cold season (October–April) increased by 10% per decade. The most widespread discharge increase occurred in April (15% per decade), the month of ice break-up for the majority of basins. In October, when river ice formation generally begins, average monthly discharge increased by 7% per decade. Long-term air temperature increases in October and April increased the number of days above freezing (+1.1 d per decade) resulting in increased snow ablation (20% per decade) and decreased snow water equivalent (−12% per decade). Compared to the historical period (1960–1989), mean April and October air temperature in the recent period (1990–2019) have greater correlation with monthly discharge from 0.33 to 0.68 and 0.0–0.48, respectively. This indicates that the recent increases in air temperature are directly related to these discharge changes. Ubiquitous increases in cold and shoulder-season discharge demonstrate the scale at which hydrologic and biogeochemical fluxes are being altered in the Arctic.